From a recent Computer World Career Watch Article:
"Pay for some certifications plummeted in the six months from April 1 to Oct. 1, according to a wide-ranging Foote Partners LLC survey covering 129 certification categories and 124 noncertified skills. The following are some particularly hard-hit certs: CompTIA Linux: -43% CompTIA Network Technician: -36% CompTIA Security+: -33% Cisco Certified Design Associate: -22% Cisco Certified Network Professional: -22% CompTIA Certified Technical Trainer: -22% Certified MySQL 4.0 Professional: -22% Citrix Certified Enterprise Administrator: -20% Microsoft Certified Trainer: -20% Microsoft Certified Database Administrator: -20% Cisco Certified Design Professional: -18% Microsoft Certified Systems Admin: Security: -13% Linux Professional Institute certification: -13% Cisco Certified Network Associate: -12%
I don't know that I'm surprised by the trend - as Scott Blake pointed out on our recent teleseminar (podcast up in the next couple of days), the future of IT isn't really the certified IT pro as much as it is someone who can translate business needs into computer systems.
I once had a long talk with a mentor of mine who asserted that, 100 years from now, the IT staff was going to be the equivalent of operations staff: that IT would be in the same department as facilities, HVAC and the security guards at the door. While I didn't quite agree, I definitely can't say that I disagree - at the point that the level of abstraction is high enough that the value added is at the business/contextual level rather than at the level of content, it seems that IT becomes part of the a maintenance function rather than an executive-level business driver (beyond the COO and VP of Operations).
(Aside: I wonder if I should worry, given that I have my CCNA and LPI certs. )